Dow surges to record high on Iran deal

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a record high on Monday as optimism over a U.S.-Iran deal and falling oil prices buoyed investor sentiment. The deal, which aims to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, sent crude prices down nearly 5%, benefiting airline and cruise companies while hurting energy sector stocks. United Airlines surged 6.4%, while Delta Air Lines and American Airlines rose 4.1% and 5.2%, respectively. Norwegian Cruise and Carnival Corp each added 5.2%.
Despite the progress, the agreement did not resolve key issues like Iran’s nuclear program or the Israel-Lebanon conflict. A formal signing is expected in Switzerland on Friday. Crude prices hit their lowest level since March, with oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron falling. The S&P 500 energy index dropped 3.9%.
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The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market fear, fell to 16.31, its lowest in over a week. It had spiked to a two-month high the previous week. The three major indexes were on track for a third consecutive gain, rebounding from a pause caused by geopolitical tensions and a retreat in AI-related stocks.
Robert Pavlik, a senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth, noted the deal could ease inflation pressures, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. “This is a much better environment for equities going forward,” he said. Chip stocks also rose, with Micron jumping 9% after brokerages raised price targets. Nvidia, Intel, and Marvell Technology added 2.3%, 5.2%, and 5.5%, respectively.
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The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index gained 4.8%, and the S&P 500 tech index rose 2.9%. Seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors were up, with technology leading gains. Lower oil prices could give the Fed more flexibility as it addresses inflation, though last week’s data showed higher energy costs pushing consumer inflation higher.
Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this week, with expectations for a 25-basis-point hike by year-end now at 70%, down from fully priced in the previous week. At 9:54 a.m., the Dow rose 590.87 points, or 1.15%, to 51,793.13. The S&P 500 added 118.27 points, or 1.59%, to 7,549.73, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 651.90 points, or 2.52%, to 26,540.74.
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SpaceX shares jumped 7.9% after its IPO closed at a valuation over $2 trillion. Markets welcomed the smooth Nasdaq debut, setting a precedent for upcoming IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic. Vital Skydance rose 3.4% after the Justice Department approved its Warner Bros acquisition. Fox, however, fell 18.2% after announcing a $22 billion deal to buy Roku, which dropped 2.5%.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by 3.08-to-1 on the NYSE and 3.39-to-1 on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 had 38 new 52-week highs and three lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 165 highs and 32 lows. The market’s relief over the Iran deal and lower oil prices highlights a shift in risk appetite, though lingering geopolitical and economic uncertainties remain.